Showing posts with label COVID Conversations. Show all posts
Showing posts with label COVID Conversations. Show all posts

Why Washington State Unemployment Has Been Screwed, 2020 June Edition

by Monday, June 29, 2020


The reason we are in this mess is partly because Inslee RESPONDED TO THE EMERGENCY BY IMMEDIATELY RELEASING EMERGENCY FUNDS to unemployed folks. He waived the waiting week so people could get their money faster. And the scammers saw this and preyed on that generosity (generosity is seen as a weakness by morally corrupt humans) and here we are.

The computer systems we have in place have only been in place since 2017. And guess what? They suck. I have been reading about them and it turns out the database queries are opaque and proprietary. So going in and fixing a lot of the issues that, say, a typical SQL database might experience is not so easily done. They have been running into issues where errors that were corrected re-introduced themselves when the database refreshed (anyone who had to go through ID verification twice know what I am talking about--that we computer issues, not human issues). The computer system is so broken it is off the charts, and it is not fixable on the fly, is a huge issue at hand.

All this on top of an insane number of legitimate unemployment applicants, and entirely new categories of unemployment applicants with taxonomical complications the system and the employees of ESD did not yet know how to deal with, and it's a perfect damn storm. This wasn't them not trying to deal with a crisis, this is a CRISIS ON TOP OF A CRISIS. Do I think it could be handled better? Yes, but primarily in the realm of communication and training of their staff in this regard.

Do you know how many claims were filed? Over 1 million. At its peak there were 1.6 million claims going through the system. For more complicated cases in adjudication, they require research to be done.

There are actually charts you can check out in their weekly updates if you want to see exactly how many claims they are processing at a given time, including how many they cleared each week. Keep in mind this is total number of claims by the department, and does not parse out just the adjudication; which, remember, does NOT just include people dealing with ID fraud. It can be Suzy Homemaker who underreported her earnings last year from a part time job, requiring they cross-reference her employment records with her reported hours and earnings. 

It can be Johhny Sludge, an rig worker who worked across several state lines and has a confusing set of employers from the previous year, requiring they pick apart some of his employment records to figure out if he should really be collecting unemployment in WA or if he should be collecting from one of the other states' companies he worked for, or both. 

Adjudicators are not just working on ID/Fraud cases, that just mucked up and ALREADY overrun department during a crisis where record numbers of workers went on unemployment, including entire classes of workers who were never eligible before (like gig workers and self-employed, which also took up a ton of adjudicators' time, by the way, in checking records!)

https://esd.wa.gov/newsroom/initial-unemployment-insurance-claims-for-week-of-june-14-20-2020

Also, there were only 200 adjudicators when this all began. They only increased the work force fairly recently. They were working 5 days a week when this began, and they upped their hours to working as much as 7 days a week to try and work this out.

I know we all like to think we know what is going on behind the scenes and fuck them and their failed system, but do you think they really are not doing everything they can to fix this? Do you think they want this all to fail, for everyone to be angry and suffering? The people working there are humans, like us. Workers, like us. This is terrible for them, too (and yes there are always going to be some little shit employees who don't give a damn, and I am SO SORRY for those of you who had to deal with them. I hope they get fired with prejudice, and I hope you get someone better next time!!)

And before I get accused of these things: no, I don't work for ESD. No I am not friends with anyone there, a relative of anyone there, paid to say any of this, blah blah blah. I am a small business owner, these thoughts are all my own, and based on research I have done entirely on my own here on this group, via articles written both by professional media and hobbyists in fields attached to various industries connected to the work involved.

For instance, I found articles and blogs dated back to 2014 and 2017, written about the last two times the Washington State Unemployment systems back end and websites were updated. I was curious what the complaints were then, what changed, who was reporting on it, and how those changes may be in play now. I like understanding things. That's why I have all this information: I like knowledge, and I hate all the blame-game bullshit I see all the time where people are just angry for the sake of being angry without thinking about the WHY. Understanding why helps me find empathy and balance in the world. So there ya go. Not and ESD shill.

COVID Conversations - Breaking Points

by Wednesday, May 20, 2020

Yesterday I had to go get my prescription at my grocery store. It was day two of a mandatory King County order to wear masks in retail spaces, and there was about a 75% compliance. No big deal, not everyone has gotten the memo and I get that. But as I walked about, I noted a particular couple who seemed both conspicuously unmasked and also completely ignoring social distancing and the one-way aisles. And scowling at everyone who was complying. I kept running into them coming the wrong way up the aisles. These aisles are easily readable signs and floor stickers--big red stop signs and big green arrows on the floor and hanging from the ceilings--so there is no excuse for ignoring these markers. These people were making intentional choices to completely ignore attempts to keep people at safe distances in public spaces.
Checking out with my few essential items, I saw them again. I saw her--what I describe to you as oldrednecksmokerlady--without a mask, up close and sticking her crotchety finger in a masked manager's face, barking about bad attitudes, then returned to her similarly oldrednecksmokerman husband in line. Just perfectly themselves, not giving a shit about anyone or anything but themselves, yelling about bad attitudes, while everyone else around them were starkly contrasting with silence and selfless mask wearing. Who exactly was rude? I don't know what precipitated it, but it didn't matter to me. I could imagine these people came in itching for a confrontation, and they made it happen.
I made a point to walk past the manager and said, "Hang in there, okay?"; and as she turned to "smile" and say "Have a good day," I realized that without the ability to actually smile, it was only her eyes that I could see--brimming a little with tears she was fighting back from the rude encounter. I tried to smile back with empathy, but realized she couldn't see mine either. I hurried out the door myself before my masked face and only-eyes-brimming-with-tears could be seen by anyone else.

COVID Conversations - The Pinball Effect

by Thursday, April 30, 2020

Right now, when it comes to C-19 numbers, I think the world is being subjected to what I have been thinking of as "The Pinball Effect".
The Pinball Effect is a term I coined in my own mind, and it doesn't have to do with things bouncing around. It has to do with numbers. Older folkses will remember that vintage pinball machines had nice reasonable numbers on them. In the hundreds. Thousands were really really high scores.
Then in the advent of the video game era, when we had electronic pinball games, those numbers started to get ridiculous. Pinball game scores were now in the millions! It was just ridiculous. The numbers ceased to have meaning any more because every *beep* *boop* *PING!* was, like, 10,000 points. End scores were stupid high. It wasn't even exciting any more, really, when a number racked up. Numbers didn't have impact.
In the modern age, we don't talk in tens or hundreds. Thousands don't thrill. When we talk about money or sales units or scores, we speak in millions, Billions, or TRILLIONS. So tens, or hundreds, or thousands doesn't sound like much.
EVEN WHEN WE TALK ABOUT LIVES.
And it fucking SICKENS me that when we are talking about LIVES, talking about hundreds to THOUSANDS of people dying A DAY of a disease, people are like "Whatever, they said it would be worse, so we should just get back to life already." Or they look at the worldwide death toll of 230,000+ to date and they say, "Oh, well they said it would be over a MILLION, and it's not, so it's NOT A BIG DEAL. Calm down, let's get back to it."
First of all, it's this "low" BECAUSE WE QUARANTINED and so many of us still are. The fact that flies over so many people's heads is just...ugh. I can't even begin to...
And second of all, this isn't a score on a pinball machine. These are HUMAN GODDAMN LIVES. 230,000 PEOPLE WHO WERE LIVING AND BREATHING. And we have every reason to believe this is not the full number and it is in fact higher.
But that number doesn't sound like anything to people any more. It's beep boop blip so high. And because of the news headlines--which rightly warned us it could be much, much worse--also so low at the same time. It ceases to have any context any more.
Then I want to pull it back, and say okay...so how many people work in your office building? Or how many people do you see in your church every week? Here's a number you can wrap your head around:
We had 2390 deaths just yesterday in the US alone. More than the population of many people's entire office buildings, and more than many people's entire church populations. In one day. And it has been this way every day for WEEKS. And that was just in the US. And that was while many states were under quarantine and taking precautions.
What number do you need to hear? What pile of bodies do you need to see to make it real to you?
This isn't a game.

COVID Conversations - SUPPLY CHAINS

by Friday, April 17, 2020
SUPPLY CHAINS
And why you should buy things you think you need now-ish (especially things from China)
Friends who have been following closely (it's okay if you haven't, I am not the funnest ball of sunshine lately) know I have been struggling to get some tech bunnies in line lately. Largely this is because everyone is trying to get tech bunnies in line right now and everything is sold out everywhere. But the mad rush is only part of the problem. The other problem is the supply chain is down, and worse yet...it's not going to get better any time soon.
On another thread on a friend's page, there was discussion of the food supply chain similarly in danger right now. A commenter flippantly said there was plenty of food on the shelves right now, and we have no reason to worry. Well, friends, I don't want to add to your stress, but I do want you to have a healthy sense of reality and preparation for the year(s) ahead. Because gently and methodically stocking your larders now would be a Very Smart Move. NOT HOARDING, NOT PANICKING; but just picking up an extra can or two when you shop each week, and stocking some dry beans/dry goods is literally always a good idea. Let's have a chat about why everything looks fine when supply chains are collapsing.



Like all wonderfully terrible things, it starts underneath (in the chain), and then it shows up at the surface (the markets).
Take things like...how about electronics--the very thing that is making me insane right now? Right now you could go out and buy a TV, right? Well, that TV wasn't made yesterday. It wasn't even shipped here yesterday. Those TVs on the shelf were shipped 6 months ago from a port in another country. They were made maybe even over a year ago in another country--let's say mostly China, in this case.
When those TVs run out on the shelves, the store fills from the back room.
The people at the store will order from a local warehouse, and the back room's backstock will fill up again, fine, good.
When the warehouse is empty, the warehouse orders from the distributer/shipper in China.
The distributer orders from the manufacturer in China.
So track it back to the source. If China is shut down, they aren't making any more and aren't shipping any more, that goes back in time, far before your shelves are ever empty. 6 months to a year.
A store shelf empties out, so the store fills from backstock. Backstock fills from a local warehouse. The warehouse ships all they have left, and now that warehouse is empty; but the store backstock is full, the store shelves are full, and you the consumer see a shelf full of TVs.
That local warehouse calls the distributor to fill up, but China is shut down--nothing is being manufactured or shipped. Now local warehouses are empty. You the consumer never see that. You just see full shelves and think everything is business-as-usual.
Next time the shelves empty, it gets filled from backstock.
The warehouse has none. Now the backstock and warehouse are both empty. You don't see that.
Next time the shelves are empty, there is nothing to fill it because long before you saw that happen, the chain had collapsed. Only now do you see the impact.
Same for every supply chain, from widgets to food. We haven't yet begun to see the impact of every supply chain around the world, because the impact will ripple out in time ahead of it. You are still seeing full shelves, but there are supply chains breaking down due to worker shortages and shutdowns, inability to source supplies and repair parts for machinery, and countless other little details we the consumer don't have to think about when we're filling our carts.
Being price-gouged on CraigsList for a webcam so I can Zoom my dance classes is just one small way I am experiencing what will be a months-long, or potentially years-long, drought in high quality electronics in the market (and the absolute flood of cheap off-brand garbage right now is alarming from an environmental standpoint, but I digress). What comes next could be potential continued scarcity and higher prices when things do return to market. Because we don't know what the world financial market is going to look like, nor how long this virus is going to be a real threat in our population.
How this will play out for clothing and food and other necessities I can't speak to (Tracy below reminds us that if you think your food all comes one state over, or even within the US--even if it says US on the label--think again, and do a little reading on the topic). For durable goods--particularly ones manufactured largely in countries hardest hit by COVID-19--my general thought has been that if you need it, and you are seeing it becoming harder to come by, get it now. It's likely only going to get more scarce and expensive for a while.
For foodstuffs, no hoarding, no freaking out; just think about what you would stock away in your larder for winter and start putting a little bit away every week. This isn't happening tomorrow, but it's something worth being prepared for.
That's my take. Any thoughts or sources to add to the discussion?

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